China has seized on the Ukraine invasion to chip away at traditional Russian spheres of influence. In Central Asia, as in the Arctic, Moscow’s reliance on Beijing to sustain its war machine forces it to acquiesce to the encroachments.
Across the strategically situated region, Beijing is drawing local economies into its orbit. Chinese investments are diverting the region’s young workers away from Russia. A Chinese-funded railroad promises to connect it with Europe, bypassing Russian territory. Chinese renewable energy projects are helping reduce its reliance on Russian gas.
For years, Russian has used its influence on Kyrgyzstan, a member of the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, to slow down the progress of the route’s development, according to Mirshohid Aslanov, founder of the Tashkent-based think tank Center for Progressive Reforms, who previously worked as an Uzbek diplomat. But sanctions related to the Ukraine war have changed the dynamics around running trade through Russia.
China is also challenging Russia in energy, a sector Moscow has traditionally dominated. Uzbekistan signed a deal to buy Russian gas in 2023 after a string of blackouts, but limited the contract to two years so far in what analysts say is a hedge against Russia using gas as political leverage.
